So, we’re watching the Australian version of Alone on Netflix and it’s very satisfying. Love that show! We probably have a season or two of the US version to catch up. And it’s interesting—if you watch enough of that show, you start to be able to pick up on the patterns that will indicate whether or not someone has what it takes to actually stay out there for a while or not.

The absolute biggest is negative thinking. If someone starts talking negative, it’s over. They’re not going to make it. They might pull themselves out for a little while, but not the long haul. Negativity is the absolute surest path to defeat. It’s quite stark seeing it play out over and over again. Makes one wonder how much negativity and negative self-talk affects us in our everyday lives.

Another sign someone isn’t going to make it: if they describe themselves as an “alpha male.” Every. Fucking. Time. That person goes home at the first sign of adversity. It’s wiiiiilllldddd you guys. I’ve seen it happen over and over again. On this particular season, the guy literally describes himself as “the baddest motherfucker out here.” He went home on Day 3.

Another sign: when someone says they’re going to focus mainly on foraging. Nope. Not gonna make it. The people who make it either bag some kind of big game—in the locations where there is big game, which is probably only 50% of the show’s seasons—or they fish like crazy.

Fishing is the number one indicator that someone is equipped to handle the long haul. Bushcraft doesn’t mean fuck all. Another indicated someone isn’t going to make it is when they spend two weeks right up top making themselves a massive, tricked out, log cabin of an effing shelter. Surefire sign they’re not going to make it. Counterintuitive, isn’t it? But that’s not that you don’t need good shelter, you definitely do…but there are several kinds you can make that more than do the job, and take maybe a day or two to assemble. Food food food. That’s the game. Everyone is starving by the end, so it’s just a matter of who can eke out enough sustenance to starve the longest. If someone hasn’t found food (almost always fish) within the first couple days…chances are slim they’ll last. Almost zero, in fact.

…but I think the most interesting thing is that negative self-talk. The negative thoughts. You are done once that starts happening. I haven’t seen a single person win the show who fell into that spiral. Very, very interesting. What kinds of things am I telling myself that I can’t do? And how many of those things might I be able to do if I can get my mind right?

The most interesting thing about the opposite, the people who do have their minds right, is how humble they sound. There’s no bragging, no hubris. It’s the opposite: humility. Determination. Practicality. It’s not that the emotion isn’t in them—it still is, quite intensely sometimes—…but when it comes to making decisions, or how they represent themselves, it’s calm, rational, and always humble.

Beware the braggadocios. They don’t believe in what they’re selling.

Night night.